Calcbench thought that we would give an update (for those of you wondering) on how our forecast of 4th Quarter revenues for oil services companies has fared. The story appeared first on our blog, and then was picked up by Fortune Magazine senior editor, Jennifer Reingold in this piece
There are a few things that need explaining. First, we forecast the 4th quarter ONLY. We also excluded the sales that the firm reports from equity affiliates and the dreaded other category. In the case of Exxon Mobil, this has been a little problematic. In their annual and quarterly statements, Exxon reports Equity Affiliate revenue and other revenue in separate line items. But, in their preliminary report, the firm did not break out the results and has reported total Revenues of $59.8 Billion in the 4th quarter - all sales are lumped into one line item. If we were to adjust for the equity affiliate revenues, our forecast would be a lot closer. It will be once the full results are announced later this month.
For what it’s worth, we have called the company to get some clarity, but our message has not been returned.
Excluding Exxon from the results, our industry forecast looks fairly strong. Of the firms that have reported, Calcbench forecast a total 4th Quarter 2015 revenue of $102 Billion. The Actual revenues that have come in are at $100.4 Billion. So, we weren’t gloomy enough, and our forecast was “off” by only 1.6%.
Here are the data that we have so far and remember, when in doubt, ‘Calcbench it’!
| Company | FORECAST Revenue 4th Quarter 2015 | ACTUAL revenue 4th Quarter 2015 | % Difference from FORECAST | Dollar DIFF FORECAST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corp ** | $56,737,640,668 | $59,807,000,000 | -5.1% | -$3,069,359,332 |
| Chevron Corp | $28,082,095,317 | $28,014,000,000 | 0.2% | $68,095,317 |
| Phillips 66 | $22,035,627,767 | $21,893,000,000 | 0.7% | $142,627,767 |
| Valero Energy Corp/TX | $19,451,452,223 | $18,777,000,000 | 3.6% | $674,452,223 |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp | $16,657,670,311 | $15,607,000,000 | 6.7% | $1,050,670,311 |
| Conocophillips | $6,413,326,385 | $6,293,000,000 | 1.9% | $120,326,385 |
| Tesoro Corp /NEW/ | $6,694,136,074 | $6,273,000,000 | 6.7% | $421,136,074 |
| Devon Energy Corp/DE | $3,819,362,596 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| Chesapeake Energy Corp | $2,812,981,818 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| Eog Resources Inc | $2,031,772,559 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| PBF Energy Inc. | $2,809,298,976 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| Occidental Petroleum Corp /DE/ | $2,890,883,606 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| HollyFrontier Corp | $3,114,814,217 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| Anadarko Petroleum Corp | $1,279,407,007 | $2,053,000,000 | -37.7% | -$773,592,993 |
| Western Refining, Inc. | $2,192,698,902 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| Apache Corp | $1,230,261,625 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| Marathon Oil Corp | $1,446,406,765 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |
| Hess Corp | $1,412,736,584 | $1,474,000,000 | -4.2% | -$61,263,416 |
| Cvr Energy Inc | $1,232,844,254 | To Be Reported | Awaiting | Awaiting |