Accelerated filers with fiscal year ends of 12/31/15 are finished filing now and Calcbench thought it appropriate to visit the Oil services note that we put out in mid December.
The piece was also picked up and written about in Fortune by Senior Editor Jennifer Reingold.
What we can say is that our overall industry forecast for revenue for the handful of firms that we estimated, was pretty darn close to the mark. The total revenues of our small sample was roughly $180.3. Our forecast was $182.3 billion for a difference of roughly $2 Billion or 1.1%.
There were a few notable hits (Chevron) and a few notable misses (Devon Energy). But overall we did pretty well as our industry forecast was pretty darn good.
The data in the table below illustrates the point (Totals at the bottom).
| Company | FORECAST Revenue 4th Quarter 2015 | Actual Revenue 4th Q 2015 | % Diff. (Actual / Forecast) | $ Diff. (Actual minus Forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corp | $56,737,640,668 | $57,691,000,000 | -1.7% | -$953,359,332 |
| Chevron Corp | $28,082,095,317 | $28,014,000,000 | 0.2% | $68,095,317 |
| Phillips 66 | $22,035,627,767 | $21,893,000,000 | 0.7% | $142,627,767 |
| Valero Energy Corp/TX | $19,451,452,223 | $18,777,000,000 | 3.6% | $674,452,223 |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp | $16,657,670,311 | $15,607,000,000 | 6.7% | $1,050,670,311 |
| Conocophillips | $6,413,326,385 | $6,293,000,000 | 1.9% | $120,326,385 |
| Tesoro Corp /NEW/ | $6,694,136,074 | $6,273,000,000 | 6.7% | $421,136,074 |
| Devon Energy Corp/DE | $3,819,362,596 | $2,886,000,000 | 32.3% | $933,362,596 |
| Chesapeake Energy Corp | $2,812,981,818 | $2,649,000,000 | 6.2% | $163,981,818 |
| Eog Resources Inc | $2,031,772,559 | $1,796,761,000 | 13.1% | $235,011,559 |
| PBF Energy Inc. | $2,809,298,976 | $3,360,489,000 | -16.4% | -$551,190,024 |
| Occidental Petroleum Corp /DE/ | $2,890,883,606 | $2,806,000,000 | 3.0% | $84,883,606 |
| HollyFrontier Corp | $3,114,814,217 | $2,943,559,000 | 5.8% | $171,255,217 |
| Anadarko Petroleum Corp | $1,279,407,007 | $2,053,000,000 | -37.7% | -$773,592,993 |
| Western Refining, Inc. | $2,192,698,902 | $2,070,324,000 | 5.9% | $122,374,902 |
| Apache Corp | $1,230,261,625 | $1,263,000,000 | -2.6% | -$32,738,375 |
| Marathon Oil Corp | $1,446,406,765 | $1,475,000,000 | -1.9% | -$28,593,235 |
| Hess Corp | $1,412,736,584 | $1,474,000,000 | -4.2% | -$61,263,416 |
| Cvr Energy Inc | $1,232,844,254 | $1,010,600,000 | 22.0% | $222,244,254 |
| Total | $182,345,417,653 | $180,335,733,000 | 1.1% | $2,009,684,653 |
We stand by our conclusion that the smart use of data can make anyone look better. Even a bunch of jokers like us.