• The incoming Trump Administration hasn’t yet said exactly what tariffs it wants to impose. 

• We don’t know how other countries might then retaliate with tariffs of their own. 

• Companies don’t disclose any single line-item labeled “tariff costs.” 

Still, even now, analysts can start to get a sense of things by considering some of the disclosures companies do make. 

For example, you could try to quantify the sales that a company generates from non-U.S. geographic segments. Why? Because if the United States imposes tariffs on, say, China, Canada, and Mexico, then those countries are likely to impose reciprocal tariffs of their own. By knowing the amount of non-U.S. revenue a company generates, you can estimate the portion of revenue at risk for reciprocal tariffs.

Alas, measuring non-U.S. revenue is not necessarily easy either, but we can recommend a few steps.

To start, try using our Segments search page, where you can search a company’s segment disclosures by geographic region. Look for the column that says Standardized Geographic Segment, type in “US” or “United States,” and see what results return.

A good example here is Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), which reports 146 geographic segments — more than any other S&P 500 firm. We fed J&J into our Segments database and arrived at Figure 1, below.

As you can see, J&J reported $46.44 billion in total U.S. revenue for 2023, and $38.71 billion for all other revenue. 

You could keep going from there for more granular detail. For example, if you type “Europe” into the standardized geographic segment, you’d see that J&J had $20.4 billion in revenue; it also had $13.7 billion from a combined Asia-Pacific/Africa region.

What about Latin America? You’d need to do more digging. In its segments footnote, Johnson & Johnson does offer some fine-print details that the Western Hemisphere excluding the United States had $4.55 billion in revenue, but it doesn’t break down revenue by specific countries. And there’s no mention of Oceania as a geographic segment, or whether the Middle East counts as Asia-Pacific. One might assume so since that’s where the Middle East is, but it would be just an assumption.

Another example is Ford Motor Co. ($F). Using the Segments page again, we promptly found that the auto giant had $117 billion in U.S. sales in 2023, $13.4 billion in Canada, and $2.77 billion in Mexico. Ford also had another $34 billion in “all other” parts of the world, which presumably includes China. Total revenues were $176.2 billion.

Now you can do some rough estimates. Ford’s Canada and Mexico sales combined were $16.17 billion, which is 9 percent of total sales. If the United States imposes tariffs on those two countries, and if they reciprocate with matching tariffs of their own, then presumably sales to Canada and Mexico will suffer. By how much, we don’t know — but we do know that roughly 9 percent of Ford sales could come under pressure just from tariffs on those two countries alone. If the United States imposes tariffs more broadly, and we see more reciprocation in response, then even more revenue might come under pressure. 

Analysis Won’t Be That Simple

Obviously our analysis involves a lot of guesswork and assumptions right now. For example, we have no idea whether tariffs would be set at 25 percent, which would be a substantial amount; or something smaller such as 5 percent. 

Nor do we know what items might be subject to tariffs — and while the United States imposes tariffs on one good, other countries might respond by imposing tariffs on other goods. For example, the United States might impose tariffs on steel and auto parts, but Canada might reciprocate by imposing them on energy exports to the U.S. and Mexico by imposing them on retail goods. 

Another challenge is in the data itself; not all filers report U.S. and non-U.S. revenue in the same manner. Some filers might disclose “North America revenue,” which would include the United States, Canada, and perhaps other countries; others might report “Western Hemisphere;” and yet more might not disclose revenue by geographic segment at all. So tread carefully, such as by tracing numeric disclosures to their presentation in the footnotes. 

Nevertheless, if you want to start building models of how much revenue a global company might have at risk in a tariff-based world, you can dig up some preliminary data now. The information is there in the filing, and you can trace it back to the source with our world-renown Trace feature. Then, as tariff policy comes into clearer view, you can keep refining your analysis. Happy digging!