Tuesday, March 4, 2025

Tariffs and trade wars weigh heavy on the financial analyst's mind this week, as everyone tries to understand the possible effect that tariffs will have on corporate earnings. 

Fear not, Calcbench has tools to help. 


We wanted to offer one quick example in the form of Illumina Inc. ($ILMN), a San Diego-based maker of high-end equipment for genomics analysis. The Chinese government included Illumina today on a roster of 20 U.S. firms now “blacklisted” in China, meaning those firms cannot import any goods or services at all into the Chinese market.


What does that mean for Illumina? Using our Disclosures & Footnotes Query tool, we pulled up the company’s revenue footnote from its 2024 Form 10-K, filed on Feb. 12. Once there, you can see that Illumina reported $308 million in “Greater China revenue” for 2024. See Figure 1, below.



As you can see, that $308 million was roughly 7 percent of Illumina’s $4.37 billion in total revenue for the year. Clearly some portion of that is now in dire jeopardy, since Beijing is no longer allowing any Illumina imports into the country — but we don’t know precisely how much is at risk, because Illumina defines “Greater China” as mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.


This is one challenge with geographic segment analysis: a company is free to define its geographic segments as it sees fit, so different companies define those regions in different ways. Some will report a single China segment; others will report a Greater China like Illumina does. Still more might report an “Asia-Pacific” segment that could include Japan, Korea, or any number of other Asia nations; and some companies might not report any geographic segments at all. 


That said, you can also use Calcbench to dig up more historical data and see that Illumina has been relying less on Greater China revenue for the last few years anyway. We dug up prior years’ segment disclosures and pulled together Figure 2, below, in about 90 seconds.



Two other quick points analysts might want to keep in mind. First, when a company suffers a direct hit in the trade wars — does that qualify as a material event worthy of an 8-K filing? We at Calcbench don’t know (we’re data providers, not securities lawyers) but Illumina hasn’t filed one so far today. Regardless, Calcbench users can always configure your email alerts to be notified whenever a company you follow does file an 8-K. 


Second, we can’t help but wonder: if tariffs and trade wars become a permanent fixture on the economic scene, might that prod some businesses to reconfigure their geographic market disclosures to offer more transparency into this issue? For example, will we see more companies disclose a dedicated “China” segment instead of Asia-Pacific, or reclassify a “North America” segment into Canada, the United States, and Mexico? 


That remains to be seen — but whatever happens, Calcbench will be tracking companies’ disclosures to help you understand it.



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