For example, in the early 2020s Carnival ($CCL) offered a glimpse into how hospitality businesses first suffered and then recovered from the pandemic. These days Carnival is something of a barometer for consumer spending: if you don’t have lots of money to spend or confidence in your future earnings, you’re probably not dropping lots of cash to go on a cruise. 

Plus, Carnival’s earnings release has numerous disclosures that let you do some fun analysis. So let’s dig in!

Interesting item No. 1 is that Carnival reports two lines of revenue: ticketing sales for future trips, and onboard sales of people buying things while on the boat. We were curious how those two lines of revenue have evolved over time, so we used our Export Data Tables feature to track quarterly revenue for both lines of business for the last four years. See Figure 1, below.

First we should note that these are Carnival’s fiscal quarters, which don’t quite align with calendar quarters. For example, Carnival’s fiscal first-quarter 2025 began on Dec. 1, 2024 and ran through Feb. 28, 2025. 

This means that its best quarter of the year, the fiscal third quarter, runs from June 1 through Aug. 31. Apparently lots of people like summertime cruises before the kids go back to school.

Some observers might then say, “Wait, how do we know that ticketing revenue and onboarding revenue happen in the same quarter? Does Carnival recognize ticketing revenue when the ticket is purchased, even if the trip itself happens in a later quarter?” 

Good question, but the answer is no. Ticketing revenue is recognized in the period when the ticketed trip actually happens. Per Carnival’s own discussion of revenue recognition, which it makes in its 10-Q filings… 

Guest cruise deposits and advance onboard purchases are initially included in customer deposits when received. Customer deposits are subsequently recognized as cruise revenues, together with revenues from onboard and other activities, and all associated direct costs and expenses of a voyage are recognized as cruise costs and expenses, upon completion of voyages with durations of ten nights or less and on a pro rata basis for voyages in excess of ten nights.

Now comes some non-GAAP magic. Carnival also discloses the number of passengers it carries per quarter — which lets us calculate the average customer spend on tickets and onboard goodies over time.

Average Passenger Spend

First let’s track the number of passengers and total onboard spending per quarter since the start of 2021. See Figure 2, below.

OK, both passenger count and onboard spending started 2021 (a quarter that aligned with the 2020 Christmas holiday season, during the depths of covid) at essentially zero, and zoomed back to respectable levels by 2023. The two lines also follow a nearly identical pattern, which should be no surprise: more people on the boat means more total spending by people on said boat.

If you divide onboard spending into passenger count, you can then determine average passenger onboard spending over time — and that gives a rather eye-popping result. See Figure 3, below.

Look at that trend line (in red), zipping upward at a brisk angle. Remember all that talk in 2023 and 2024 about consumer spending marching relentlessly onward, despite fears of a recession that never actually did arrive? That trend line for average passenger spend proves the point. 

We didn’t do an analysis of average ticket price paid per passenger, but we’re confident the data would tell essentially the same story.

The question now, of course, is whether those upward spending patterns will continue in 2025. Carnival’s fiscal first quarter was off to a good start; ticketing sales and onboard spend were up 5.9 and 10.5 percent, respectively, from the year-ago period. 

Then again, by Carnival’s summer high season, tariffs and other economic uncertainty might spook more people to stay home. If that happens, Carnival could be in for rough seas in the latter half of its fiscal year. 

Calcbench doesn’t know what might happen next, but we do have the data to help you understand historical trends and where things might go in the future.